In the discussion surrounding generative AI, people seem most curious about whose jobs will wind up on the chopping block. Important information, to be sure, but it's also a framing that neglects the technology's wider impacts.
Last week, the Burning Glass Institute's report on AI and the workplace became the latest of several studies to prompt a cycle of frightening headlines about the future of knowledge work.
The New York Times provides the model here:
"Generative A.I.’s Biggest Impact Will Be in Banking and Tech, Report Says"
Though workers in banking and tech doubtless find this information useful, a closer look at the report reveals that the Times has buried the lead.
From page 12:
Given the broad potential for human labor to be displaced by AI, increases in productivity will generate disproportionate returns for investors and senior employees at tech companies, many of whom are already among the wealthiest people in the U.S. Thus, the U.S. economy, already characterized by high levels of inequality, will see further economic stratification and increased concentration of wealth.
In other words, the wealthy stand to reap the majority of the economic rewards derived from generative AI. And if the technology fulfills even half of its promises, there will be rewards aplenty.
This, more than the decline of any particular profession, strikes me as the most pressing issue we're liable to face as AI gobbles up more of the economy.
The United States is already so economically top-heavy that it's having trouble sustaining a functioning democracy. If the rich leave economic orbit, relegating all others to stagnation in the process, it's doubtful our institutions will sustain the blow.
Worse yet, I wonder if, when that day comes, the haves and have-nots will be able to find enough common ground to even discuss this state of affairs, to say nothing of trying to fix it.